Abstract: To predict future precipitation trends in Xinjiang, better understanding the regional precipitation on long time scales is important for the regional paleoenvironmental research. The precipitation changes in the Altai Mountains over the past 2000 years were quantitatively reconstructed based on palynological data from the Yushekule Peat that collected from an 88 cm long drill core at the south piedmont of the Altai Mountains in north Xinjiang and 627 modern topsoil samples collected in nearby 800 km-ranged areas using a modern analogue technique (MAT) method. Results show that the precipitation in the Yushekule Peat fluctuated between 132 mm and 300 mm, from a wet period (ca. 224 mm) during 0—1010 AD to a dry period (ca. 182 mm) during 1010—2000 AD. The maximum precipitation occurred at 750 AD (ca. 300 mm) and the minimum at 1910 AD (ca. 132 mm). Combined with the temperature data recorded in tree ring in the Altai Mountains, the hydrothermal model in the past 2000 years demonstrated an evolution process from warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, cold-dry, to warm-wet under the influence of the southward shift of westerlies caused by NAO and solar radiation changes. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and patterns of climate change in the Altai Mountains, and provides an important reference for future climate prediction.