SHORELINE DYNAMICS AND EVOLUTION FORECAST IN THE YELLOW RIVER DELTA ESTUARY

The Yellow River delta was formed by sedimentation and its surface was covered with Holocene loose sediment, mostly of fine grain. Lithology is represented by silt, which is in high porosity and low stability. As the days of stream cutoff increase gradually year by year, the sand transport of the Yellow River decreases accordingly.Due to silting-up and marine action, alternative evolution (silting-up and erosion) is taking place along the shoreline of the Yellow River delta. The delta was generally in a silting-up state since the course of the Yellow River changed its direction to Qingshui channel in 1976. By analyzing landsat images got during 1986-2004 in the estuary district, we found that there was a duality linear correlation between these data. And we forecast evolution trend of the shoreline in the district using regression model. The result of forecast shows that sandspit in the previous estuary district of the delta would be in a retreat state from 2005 to 2010,but there would be a silting-up and expansive trend in the area around the north route 1.