[1]
|
IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2007. |
[2]
|
Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, et al. External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings[J]. Science, 2000, 290:2133-2137. |
[3]
|
Tett S F B, Jones G S, Stott P A, et al. Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2002, 107:4306. |
[4]
|
Meehl G A, Washington W M, Ammann C M, et al. Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17:3721-3727. |
[5]
|
Brönnimann S, Ewen T, Luterbacher J, et al. Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years[M]. Berlin:Springer Netherlands, 2008:1-25. |
[6]
|
唐国利, 丁一汇, 王绍武, 等. 中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5:71-78.[TANG Guoli, DING Yihui, WANG Shaowu, et al. Comparative analysis of the time series of surface air temperature over China for the last 100
years[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2009, 5:71-78.] |
[7]
|
Li Q X, Dong W J, Li W, et al. Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55:1974-1982. |
[8]
|
胡文志, 梁延刚, 雷惠雯, 等. 香港城市与郊区气候差异分析[J]. 气象, 2009, 35:71-79.[WU M C, Leung Y K, Lui W M, et al. A study on the different between urban and rural climate in Hong Kong[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009
, 35:71-79.] |
[9]
|
Qian W H, Lu B, Zhu C W. How would global-mean temperature change in the 21st century?[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55:1963-1967. |
[10]
|
Mann M E, Park J, Bradley R S. Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries[J]. Nature, 1995, 378:266-270. |
[11]
|
Qian W, Zhu Y. Climate change in China from 1880 to 1998 and its impact on the environmental condition[J]. Climatic Change, 2001, 50:419-444. |
[12]
|
钱维宏, 丁婷, 符娇兰, 等. 中国气候变化研究中不同时间尺度资料的应用与研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3:334-339.[QIAN Weihong, DING Ting, FU Jiaolan, et al. Application of data with different temporal resolutions to climate change researches in China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007
, 3:334-339.] |
[13]
|
冯瑞权, 吴池胜, 王安宇, 等. 1901-2007年澳门地面气温变化的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5:12-17.[FONG Soikun, WU Chisheng, WANG Anyu, et al. Analysis of surface air temperature change in Macau during 1901
-2007[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2009, 5:12-17.] |
[14]
|
黄雪松, 况雪源, 覃峥嵘, 等. 广西近百年气温和降水序列的多时间尺度分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3:362-367.[HUANG Xuesong, KUANG Xueyuan, QIN Zhengrong, et al. Multi-time-scale variations of recent centenary seried of temperature and precipitation in Guangxi of China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007
, 3:362-367.] |
[15]
|
冯瑞权, 吴池胜, 王婷, 等. 澳门近百年气候变化的多时间尺度特征[J]. 热带气象学报, 2010, 26:452-462.[FONG Soikun, WU Chisheng, WANG Ting, et al. Multiple time scales analysis of climate variation in Macau during the last 100
years[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2010, 26:452-462.] |
[16]
|
Qian W H, Lu B. Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55:4052-4057. |
[17]
|
Karlén W. Recent global warming:an artifact of a too-short temperature record?[J]. AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment, 2005, 34:263-264. |
[18]
|
Walsh J E, Crane R G. A comparison of GCM simulations of Arctic climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1992, 19:29-32. |
[19]
|
Holland M M, Bitz C M. Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2003, 21:221-232. |
[20]
|
卢爱刚, 庞德谦, 康世昌, 等. 全球升温下中国温度区域变化的稳定性[J]. 生态环境, 2007, 16:275-279.[LU Aigang, KANG Shichang, PANG Deqian, et al. Regional stability of temperature change across China under global warming[J]. Ecology Environment, 2007
, 16:275-279.] |
[21]
|
Senior C A. The dependence of climate sensitivity on the horizontal resolution of a GCM[J]. Journal of Climate, 1995, 8:2860-2880. |
[22]
|
May W, Roeckner E. A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution:the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2001, 17:407-420. |
[23]
|
唐国利, 任国玉. 近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10:791-798.[TANG Guoli, REN Guoyu. Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100
years over China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005, 10:791-798.] |
[24]
|
沙万英, 邵雪梅, 黄玫. 20世纪80年代以来中国的气候变暖及其对自然区域界线的影响[J]. 中国科学D辑, 2002, 32:317-326.[SHA Wanying, SHAO Xuemei, HUANG Mei. The air surface temperature and the influence to boundary of natural areas in China since the 1980
s[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2002, 32:317-326.] |
[25]
|
陈志梅, 刘秦玉, 沈小野, 等. 青岛近百年气温变化特征[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2005, 35:189-194.[CHEN Zhimei, LIU Qinyu, SHEN Xiaoye, et al. The characteristics of temperature change in Qingdao during the past one hundred years[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2005
, 35:189-194.] |
[26]
|
陈新光, 钱光明, 陈特固, 等. 广东气候变暖若干特征及其对气候带变化的影响[J]. 热带气象学报, 2006, 22:547-552.[CHEN Xinguang, QIAN Guangming, CHEN Tegu, et al. Characteristics of climate warming and impact on climate belts change in Guangdong[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2006
, 22:547-552.] |
[27]
|
Min S K, Park E, Kwon W T. Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 2004, 82:1187-1211. |
[28]
|
Lean J L, Rind D H. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures:1889 to 2006[J]. Geophys.Res.Lett., 2008, 35:L18701. |
[29]
|
Lean J L, Rind D H. How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades[J]. Geophys.Res.Lett., 2009, 36:L15708. |
[30]
|
蔡榕硕, 张启龙, 齐庆华. 南海表层水温场的时空特征与长期变化趋势[J]. 台湾海峡, 2009, 28:559-568.[CAI Rongshuo, ZHANG Qilong, QI Qinghua. Spatial temporal oscillation and long-term variation in sea surface temperature field of the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait, 2009
, 28:559-568.] |
[31]
|
龚道溢, 何学兆. 西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化及其气候影响[J]. 地理学报, 2002, 57:185-193.[GONG Daoyi, HE Xuezhao. Interdecadal change in western pacific subtropical high and climatic effects[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002
, 57:185-193.] |
[32]
|
Merrifield M A. A shift in western tropical Pacific sea level trends during the 1990s[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24:4126-4138. |
[33]
|
Liu Q, Feng M, Wang D. ENSO-induced interannual variability in the southeastern South China Sea[J]. Journal of Oceanography, 2011, 67:127-133. |
[34]
|
游大伟, 汤超莲, 陈特固, 等. 近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势[J]. 热带地理, 2012, 32:1-5.[YOU Dawei, TANG Chaolian, CHEN Tegu, et al. Sea level changes along Guangdong coast over the last century[J]. Tropical Geography, 2012
, 32:1-5.] |
[35]
|
高辉. 东亚冬季风指数及其对东亚大气环流异常的表征[J]. 气象学报, 2007, 65:272-279.[GAO Hui. Comparison of four east Asian winter monsoon indices[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2007
, 65:272-279.] |
[36]
|
Easterbrook D J. Global cooling is here-evidence for predicting global cooling for the next three decades[J]. Global Research, 2008, www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=10783. |
[37]
|
Chelliah M, Bell G D. Tropical multidecadal and interannual climate variability in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17:1777-1803. |
[38]
|
Alexander M A, Bladé I, Newman M, et al. The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15:2205-2232. |
[39]
|
Wang L, Chen W, Huang R. Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east Asian winter monsoon[J]. Geophys.Res.Lett., 2008, 35:L20702. |